(C) Motherhood and the Future, I

Article by Robert J. Samuelson in Newsweek (May 29 issue) addresses the declining birthrates in many countries and what that means for the future.

Russian president Vladamir Putin initiated a program to offer cash incentives to Russian women to have (more) children. Putin is trying to rectify his country's "critical" population issue.

Just six years ago Russia's population was nearly 147 million; some statictics show it declining by 700,000 a year. Projections are for Russia to be down to a total poulation of 111 million in less than forty five years (one generation). With that declining trend how can Russia maintain a strong economy, national optimism or a capable military?

Observes Samuelson:

On average, women must have two children for a society to replace itself. The actual number of children per woman is called the "total fertility rate," or TFR. Here are the 2005 TFRs for some major countries: Germany, 1.4; Greece, 1.3; Italy, 1.3; Japan, 1.4; Poland, 1.2; and Russia, 1.3...ultimately, low fertility rates suggest falling populations...

"The forthcoming and dramatic depopulation of Europe and Japan will cause many problems," writes Ben Wattenberg in "Fewer," his excellent book on the subject. "Populations will age, the customer base [for businesses] will shrink, there will be labor shortages, the tax base will decline, pensions will be cut, retirement ages will increase."

Up to a point, we understand plunging fertility rates. The usual suspects: improved incomes; health and life expectancies (as more children survive, parents have fewer babies); growing urbanization (families need fewer children to work the fields); women's access to education and jobs; contraception; later and fewer marriages; more divorces. But our understanding is only partial, because there's one big exception to low fertility rates: the United States.

What do you think about declining populations? Are women cooling to the idea of having children? If so, why? Are there good reasons - strategically, not selfishly - for families to have more kids? It is interesting to me to think about this.